I Disagree – Meb Faber Analysis


What funding perception do you maintain that the overwhelming majority of your friends (75%+) don’t share?

In 2019, I made a decision to start out publicly answering the query above and including to it over time. You’ll be able to try all the thread here, however my current podcast with Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson touched on the identical matter so at their ‘nudging,’ I’m sharing all the record beneath too.

Apologies for offending anybody upfront!

Table of Contents

2019

1. Investing primarily based on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical funding technique.

See our outdated e-book, Shareholder Yield: A Higher Method to Dividend Investing, for more information, free obtain right here.

2. The Federal Reserve has accomplished a superb job.

I publicly say on a regular basis that they need to simply peg the Fed Fund Charge to the 2-year, and my buddy Tom McClellan has a superb chart illustrating this view…

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3. Pattern following methods deserve a significant allocation to most portfolios.

We have now in all probability the very best pattern allocation of any RIA that I do know with our Trinity fashions, the default allocation is half!

4. A fundamental low price international market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the overwhelming majority of establishments over time.

See our outdated GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here.

5. US buyers must be allocating a minimal of fifty% of their inventory allocation to non-US international locations.

Take a look at our publish “The Case for World Investing” for more information.

6. 13F replication is a greater strategy to investing in most long-term hedge funds than investing within the hedge funds themselves.

Make investments with the Home free e-book obtain right here.

7. So long as you’ve among the fundamental substances (international shares, bonds, actual property) your asset allocation doesn’t actually matter. What does matter is charges and taxes.

See our outdated GAA e-book for more information, free obtain right here. Plus, right here’s an outdated Twitter thread on the subject.

8. A easy quant display screen on public shares will outperform most personal fairness funds.

Study extra about this by listening to my previous podcast episodes with Dan Rasmussen & Jeff Hooke.

9. An inexpensive time-frame to judge a supervisor or technique is 10, possibly 20 years.

We wrote a paper on this matter, you may learn it right here.

10. I don’t really feel like I’ve to have an opinion on Telsa inventory.

Though I’ve shared my opinion with Elon on different matters earlier than (learn here)

11. A passive index just isn’t the identical factor as a market cap index (anymore).

2020

12. Monetary advisors and asset managers are 4x leveraged the inventory market, and will/ought to hedge that publicity….and even personal no US shares!

Learn our longer publish on the subject right here.

13. Most endowments and pensions can be higher off firing their workers and transferring to a scientific portfolio of ETFs.

You needed to know I wrote a weblog publish about this, proper? CalPERS lastly informed me they received’t rent me to do that. I attempted…

2021

14. Everybody likes to complain about manipulation, THE FED, r/wsb, yadda yadda… Markets are functioning as they at all times have. Which is, usually. Quick squeeze? Yawn, been happening eternally. 

Jamie Catherwood had an ideal post on the historical past of brief squeezes. 

15. Excessive inventory market valuations aren’t justified by low rates of interest.

Learn my publish about this from January 2021 right here. 

16. A world diversified portfolio of property is *much less dangerous* than placing your secure cash briefly time period bonds or payments.

This is among the matters lined in The Keep Wealthy Portfolio publish. 

2022

17. The CAPE Ratio is a helpful indicator and issue.

Right here’s my FAQ with every part it’s essential to know concerning the CAPE Ratio. 

18. It doesn’t have an effect on your funding end result should you personal US shares. You would personal 0% and just do nice.

Right here’s my tweet about this with the chart beneath. 

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19. A portfolio of sovereign bonds weighted by yield is superior to 1 weighted by market cap and whole debt issuance.

Learn our white paper on this right here. 

 

20. Placing all your cash into one asset, just like the S&P500, just isn’t “boring”.

… to be continued …

Am I overestimating how a lot I disagree with others? What are beliefs you disagree along with your friends on? Be happy to answer to the unique thread here