Foreign exchange and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 – 29, 2023 – Analytics & Forecasts – 23 September 2023

EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Assist the Greenback

● In earlier evaluations, we extensively mentioned the verbal interventions made by Japanese officers who purpose to bolster the yen by means of their public statements. This time, comparable actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officers, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their assembly on September twentieth, the FOMC determined to keep up the rate of interest at 5.50%. This was largely anticipated, as futures markets had indicated a 99% likelihood of such an end result. Nonetheless, within the subsequent press convention, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle towards inflation is much from over, and that the two.0% goal is probably not achieved till 2026. Subsequently, one other fee hike of 25 foundation factors could be very a lot within the playing cards. In response to the Fed Chairman, there isn’t any recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economic system is sufficiently strong to maintain such excessive borrowing prices for an prolonged interval. Moreover, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a fee hike to five.75% inside this 12 months. In response to the Committee’s financial forecast, this fee degree is anticipated to persist for fairly a while. Particularly, the up to date forecast means that the speed may solely be lowered to five.1% a 12 months from now (versus the beforehand acknowledged 4.6%), and a lower to three.9% is anticipated in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).

● Market members have combined beliefs about these prospects, however the reality stays that the hawkish assertions from officers have bolstered the greenback, regardless of the absence of tangible actions. It is potential that the Federal Reserve has discovered from the errors of their European Central Financial institution (ECB) counterparts, who’ve led market gamers to imagine that the financial tightening cycle within the Eurozone has concluded. As a reminder, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that she considers the present rate of interest degree to be acceptable, whereas the Governor of the Financial institution of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, acknowledged that, in his opinion, rates of interest have peaked, and the subsequent transfer will possible be a discount. The same sentiment: that the September act of financial tightening was the final, was additionally expressed by Stournaras’s colleague, Boris Vujčić, the Governor of the Nationwide Financial institution of Croatia.

● On account of the Federal Reserve’s verbal intervention, the Greenback Index (DXY) soared from 104.35 to 105.37 inside only a few hours, whereas EUR/USD declined to a degree of 1.0616. Economists at Oversea-Chinese language Banking Company (OCBC) imagine that, given the Fed’s resolution to retain flexibility regarding one other fee hike, it isn’t advisable to anticipate a dovish flip within the foreseeable future.

Danske Financial institution strategists opine that “the Fed was as hawkish because it might be with out truly elevating charges.” Nonetheless, they contend that “regardless of the continued strengthening of the greenback, there could also be some upside potential for EUR/USD within the close to time period.” Danske Financial institution additional states, “We imagine that peak charges, enhancements within the manufacturing sector in comparison with the service sector, and/or a discount in pessimism in the direction of China may assist EUR/USD over the subsequent month. Nonetheless, in the long run, we preserve our strategic place favouring a decline in EUR/USD, anticipating a breakthrough under 1.0300 throughout the subsequent 12 months.”

● Information on U.S. enterprise exercise launched on Friday, September 22, offered a combined image. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 48.9, whereas the Companies PMI declined to 50.2. Consequently, the Composite PMI remained above the 50.0 threshold however confirmed a slight dip, transferring from 50.2 to 50.1.

Following the PMI launch, EUR/USD concluded the week at 1.0645. Seventy p.c of consultants favoured additional strengthening of the greenback, whereas 30% voted for an uptrend within the foreign money pair. When it comes to technical evaluation, not a lot has modified over the almost accomplished week. All development indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are nonetheless unanimously supporting the American foreign money and are colored pink. Nonetheless, 15% of them are signalling the pair’s oversold situation. The closest assist ranges for the pair lie within the 1.0620-1.0630 vary, adopted by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Resistance ranges will probably be encountered within the 1.0670-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

● As for the upcoming week’s occasions, Tuesday, September 26 will see the discharge of U.S. actual property market knowledge, adopted by sturdy items orders within the U.S. on Wednesday. Thursday, September 28 guarantees to be a busy day. Preliminary inflation (CPI) knowledge from Germany in addition to U.S. GDP figures for Q2 will probably be disclosed. Moreover, the customary U.S. labour market statistics will probably be launched, and the day will conclude with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Friday, we will additionally anticipate a slew of serious macroeconomic knowledge, together with the Eurozone’s preliminary Shopper Value Index (CPI) and data relating to private consumption in america.

GBP/USD: BoE Withdraws Assist for the Pound

● The monetary world does not revolve across the Federal Reserve’s choices alone. Final week, the Financial institution of England (BoE) additionally made its voice heard. On Thursday, September 21, the BoE’s Financial Coverage Committee left the rate of interest for the pound unchanged at 5.25%. Whereas an identical resolution by the Federal Reserve was anticipated, the BoE’s transfer got here as a shock to market members. They’d anticipated a 25 foundation level enhance, which didn’t materialize. Because of this, the strengthening greenback and weakening pound drove GBP/USD right down to 1.2230.

● The BoE’s resolution was possible influenced by encouraging inflation knowledge for the UK printed the day earlier than. The annual Shopper Value Index (CPI) truly declined to six.7%, in comparison with the earlier 6.8% and a forecast of seven.1%. The core CPI additionally fell from 6.9% to six.2%, towards a forecast of 6.8%. Given such knowledge, the choice to pause and never burden an already struggling economic system seems affordable. This rationale is additional supported by the UK’s preliminary Companies Buying Managers’ Index (PMI) for September, which hit a 32-month low at 47.2, in comparison with 49.5 in August and a forecast of 49.2. The Manufacturing PMI was additionally reported at 44.2, considerably under the vital degree of fifty.0.

In response to economists at S&P International Market Intelligence, these “disheartening PMI outcomes counsel {that a} recession in the UK is turning into more and more possible. […] The sharp decline in manufacturing volumes indicated by the PMI knowledge corresponds to a GDP contraction of greater than 0.4% on a quarterly foundation, and the broad-based downturn is gaining momentum with no fast prospects for enchancment.”.

● Analysts at one of many largest banks in america, Wells Fargo, imagine that the BoE’s resolution alerts a lack of rate-based assist for the British pound. In response to their forecast, the present fee of 5.25% will mark the height of the cycle, adopted by a gradual decline to three.25% by the top of 2024. Consequently, they argue that “on this context, a motion of the pound to 1.2000 or decrease will not be out of the query.”

Their counterparts at Scotiabank share an identical sentiment. New lows and powerful bearish alerts on the oscillator for short-term, medium-term, and long-term tendencies point out an elevated danger of the pound dropping to 1.2100-1.2200.

Economists at Germany’s Commerzbank don’t rule out the potential for a slight restoration for the pound if inflation outlooks considerably enhance. They imagine that the Financial institution of England has left the door open for an additional fee hike. The vote for sustaining the present fee was surprisingly shut at 5:4, that means 4 members of the Financial Coverage Committee voted in favour of a 25 foundation level enhance. This underscores the excessive degree of uncertainty. Nonetheless, because of the weak spot within the UK economic system, the outlook for the pound stays bearish.

● GBP/USD closed the previous week at 1.2237. Analyst opinions on the pair’s fast future are evenly cut up: 50% anticipate additional downward motion, whereas the opposite 50% anticipate a correction to the upside. All development indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are colored in pink; furthermore, 40% of those oscillators are within the oversold zone, which is a robust sign for a possible development reversal.

If the pair continues its downward trajectory, it is going to encounter assist ranges and zones at 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. Alternatively, if the pair rises, it is going to face resistance at 1.2325, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

● When it comes to financial occasions impacting the UK for the upcoming week, the spotlight would be the launch of the nation’s GDP knowledge for Q2, scheduled for Friday, September 29.

USD/JPY: Lacklustre Assembly on the Financial institution of Japan

● Following their counterparts on the Federal Reserve and the Financial institution of England, the Financial institution of Japan (BoJ) held its assembly on Friday, September 22. “It was a lacklustre assembly,” commented economists at TD Securities. “All members unanimously voted to maintain coverage unchanged. The assertion was largely just like the one issued in July, and no adjustments had been made to the ahead steerage.” The important thing rate of interest remained on the unfavorable degree of -0.1%.

● The next press convention led by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda additionally disillusioned yen bulls. Ueda didn’t converse towards the weakening of the nationwide foreign money; as a substitute, he reiterated that the change fee ought to mirror elementary indicators and stay secure. The central financial institution’s head additionally famous that the regulator “may think about the potential for ending yield curve management and altering the unfavorable rate of interest coverage after we are assured that reaching the two% inflation goal is close to.”

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s speech was additionally a typical type of verbal intervention for him. “We’re carefully monitoring foreign money change charges with a excessive sense of urgency and immediacy,” the minister declared, “and we don’t rule out any choices for responding to extreme volatility.” He added that final 12 months’s foreign money intervention had its meant impact however didn’t point out whether or not comparable steps might be anticipated within the close to future.

● Ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the USD/JPY foreign money pair are historically immediately correlated. When the yield on the bonds rises, so does the greenback towards the yen. This week, following hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, charges on 10-year Treasuries soared to their highest peak since 2007. This propelled USD/JPY to a brand new excessive of 148.45. In response to economists at TD Securities, contemplating the rise in U.S. yields, the pair may break above 150.00. In the meantime, on the French financial institution Societe Generale, goal ranges of 149.20 and 150.30 are being cited.

● The final word of the five-day buying and selling session sounded on the 148.36 mark. A majority of surveyed consultants (70%) agreed with the views of their colleagues at TD Securities and Societe Generale relating to the additional rise of USD/JPY. A correction to the draw back, and probably a pointy drop as a consequence of foreign money interventions, is anticipated by 20% of analysts. The remaining 10% took a impartial stance. All 100% of development indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are colored inexperienced, though 10% of the latter are signalling overbought circumstances. The closest assist degree is within the 146.85-147.00 zone, adopted by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance is at 148.45, adopted by 148.45, 148.85-149.20, 150.00, and eventually, the October 2022 excessive of 151.90.

● No vital financial knowledge associated to the state of the Japanese economic system is scheduled for launch within the upcoming week. Nonetheless, merchants might wish to mark Friday, September 29 on their calendars, as client inflation knowledge for the Tokyo area will probably be printed on that day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Battle for $27,000  

● On Monday, September 18, the value of the main cryptocurrency started to soar, pulling your complete digital asset market upward. Curiously, the rationale behind this surge was circuitously associated to bitcoin, however quite to the U.S. greenback. Particularly, it was tied to the Federal Reserve’s choices relating to rates of interest. Excessive greenback charges restrict the circulate of investments into riskier property, together with cryptocurrencies, as massive buyers favor secure returns. On this case, forward of the upcoming Federal Reserve assembly, market members had been assured that the regulator wouldn’t solely chorus from elevating charges however would additionally hold them unchanged till year-end. Using on these expectations, BTC/USD surged, reaching a peak of $27,467 on August 19, including greater than 10% since September 11.

Nonetheless, though the speed did certainly stay unchanged, it grew to become clear following the assembly that the battle towards inflation would proceed. Subsequently, any hopes of a shift away from the Fed’s hawkish stance ought to be put aside for now. Because of this, the value of bitcoin reversed course. After breaking by means of the assist zone at $27,000, it returned to its beginning positions.

● Regardless of the latest pullback, many within the crypto group stay assured that the digital gold will proceed to rise. As an example, an analyst going by the alias Yoddha believes that bitcoin has an opportunity to refresh its native excessive within the quick time period and attain $50,000 by year-end. After which, he suggests, a correction to $30,000 might happen in early 2024, forward of the halving occasion. Blogger Crypto Rover additionally anticipates that troubles within the U.S. economic system will gas BTC’s progress. If the pair manages to firmly set up itself above $27,000, he expects the value to maneuver in the direction of $32,000.

Analyst DonAlt is of the opinion that bitcoin stands an opportunity to stage a brand new spectacular rally and replace its 2023 excessive. “If we rise and overcome the resistance we’re at the moment battling,” he writes, “the goal, I imagine, might be $36,000. […] I will not rule out lacking an excellent entry at $30,000 as a result of if the value takes off, it could rise too shortly. [But] we’ve sufficient compelling causes to additionally transfer downward. Within the worst case, I am going to take a minor hit if it plunges into the $19,000 to $20,000 vary.”.

● Dealer and analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin’s bullish market cycle started forming round January, and this course of continues to be not full regardless of the latest worth consolidation. In response to the professional, bitcoin will affirm its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key degree at $28,500. “This market has seldom seen sub-$25,000 ranges. I am not saying it may’t go down, however for six months now, the weekly closings have been above these ranges. Thus far, so good, however we’re not in bull territory but. Bulls have to see closings above $26,550 no less than sometimes,” states Pizzino. “Bulls nonetheless have a lot to do. I am going to begin speaking about them as soon as we cross the white line on the $28,500 degree once more. This is among the key ranges for bitcoin to start out transferring upwards after which attempt to break $32,000.”.

● John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, doesn’t rule out the chance that the main crypto asset is making ready for a breakout. The indicator makes use of the usual deviation from the easy transferring common to find out volatility and potential worth ranges for an asset. Presently, BTC/USD is forming every day candles that contact the higher band. This might point out a reversal again to the central band or, conversely, a rise in volatility and upward motion. Slim Bollinger Bands on the charts counsel that the latter state of affairs is extra possible. Nonetheless, Bollinger himself feedback cautiously, believing that it’s nonetheless too early to attract definitive conclusions.

● PlanB, the well-known creator of the S2FX mannequin, has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this 12 months. He famous that the November 2022 low was the underside for bitcoin, and its ascent will start nearer to the halving occasion. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will drive the main cryptocurrency as much as $66,000, and the next bull market in 2025 may push its worth above the $100,000 mark.

Investor and best-selling writer of “Wealthy Dad Poor Dad,” Robert Kiyosaki, has excessive hopes for the halving occasion as properly. In response to the professional, the U.S. economic system is on the verge of a severe disaster, and cryptocurrencies, notably bitcoin, provide buyers a secure haven throughout these turbulent instances. Kiyosaki predicts that the value of bitcoin may soar to $120,000 subsequent 12 months, and the 2024 halving will function a key catalyst for the rally.

● In conclusion, to steadiness out the optimistic forecasts talked about earlier, let’s introduce some pessimism. In response to common analyst and host of the DataDash channel, Nicholas Merten, the crypto market may expertise one other downturn. He cites the declining liquidity of stablecoins as an indicator. “It is a good metric for figuring out tendencies within the cryptocurrency market. As an example, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. Throughout the identical interval, the liquidity of stablecoins elevated by 119%. Then we see a interval of consolidation the place liquidity additionally remained at a continuing degree. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, the liquidity of stablecoins surged by 2,183%,” the professional shares his observations.

“Liquidity and worth progress are interconnected. If liquidity is declining or consolidating, the market is probably going not going to develop. That is true for each cryptocurrencies and monetary markets. For market capitalization to develop, you want liquidity, however what we’re seeing is a continuing decline in liquidity, which makes a worth drop for cryptocurrencies extra possible,” Nicholas Merten states.

● As of the time of scripting this evaluate, Friday night, September 22, BTC/USD is buying and selling round $26,525. The general market capitalization of the crypto market has remained nearly unchanged, standing at $1.053 trillion (in comparison with $1.052 trillion every week in the past). The Bitcoin Crypto Worry & Greed Index has dropped by 2 factors, transferring from 45 to 43, and stays within the ‘Worry’ zone.

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